We want to start by saying that coming into this season, there were many question marks regarding this program that we and others reported on. With this, head coach Penny Hardaway and staff navigated the season without the hiccup we would see in teams of late. In 2025, the Memphis Tigers proved us, and many others, wrong in the projection of how their season played out.
As we approach March Madness, all eyes turn to ‘Selection Sunday’ this upcoming March 16th. With this, fans from across the nation, specifically Memphis Tigers fans, eagerly look at the bracket projections as the Tigers begin American Athletic Conference Tournament action this Friday, the 14th, in Ft. Worth.
We here at 4 Star Sports recently hosted one of the nation’s top bracket analysts and were on a media call with another as we continue to analyze where Memphis will be seeded in the tournament. We will now take a look at the Tigers this season and what these analysts had to say.
Conference Champions Again
This season, the Tigers have been dominant as they finished the regular season with a 26-5 record and are the 16th-ranked team in the nation. In addition, the Tigers are accomplishing things not seen under Hardway in his tenure, which is American championships. In 2025, the streak came to an end as the Tigers captured their first AAC outright regular-season title. The 84-68 rout of South Florida captured the first conference crown since the 2012-13 season when the Tigers won the C-USA after an unblemished 16-0 conference record.
Hardaway was adamant in preseason about how he “Learned from mistakes made” and has proven this with how he has managed this roster and program in games. The loss of assistants didn’t seem to phase Penny as he added Mike Davis and Nolan Smith in two moves that have, thus far, been beneficial. The influx of coaches and players that have fit the style of Hardaway on and off the court makes this Memphis program a tough out this March.
Awards Galore
Following the season, the coaches within the conference will vote for the official AAC awards. We have learned through the conference that this is voted on yearly by the coaches of the league, and the coaches are not allowed to vote for their players.
These awards were full of Tigers as they were announced on Tuesday, March 11th, through a release from the American. For the first time in his career, Hardaway was named conference Coach of the Year. In 2025, the Tigers reached their highest AP ranking in March since the 2008-9 season. With the win over South Florida on February 13th, Hardaway secured his 150th win as the head coach of the Tigers.
With the additional wins to close the season, Penny now has 155 wins all-time, which sets him as the 6th best in most wins in program history. Next on the list is legendary Tigers coach Dana Kirk, who finished his tenure with 158 wins. Kirk led Memphis on the sidelines from 1979 to 1986.
In addition to Hardaway, the conference named a co-coach to honor the late South Florida head coach, Amir Abdur-Rahim, who was named Honorary Coach of the Year. In our opinion, this decision showed incredible class from the American to all the family, university, players, and more impacted by Abdur-Rahim.
Joining Hardaway in the awards was Pride the Tigers. We start with the American Player of the Year, PJ Haggerty. After transferring to Memphis from Tulsa, the junior from Colby, Texas, ranks fifth in the nation with 21.2 points per game this season as he has put the nation on notice in his All-American season. From this season, Haggerty has been named a top-5 finalist for the Jerry West Shooting Guard of the Year, a top-15 finalist for the Wooden Award, and was on the midseason watch list for the Oscar Robertson and Naismith Award. Haggerty is the second Tiger to be named AAC POTY as he joins Precious Achiuwa, who won the award in the 2019-20 season.
Part of the influx of talent was Illinois transfer Dain Dainja, and the impact has been dangerous to defenses. Dainja would be voted the Newcomer of the Year in the conference behind a season that saw him make a name for himself. Dainja has solidified himself as one of the best big men and most improved players in the nation. The big man is averaging 13.7 points per game while snatching 7 rebounds this season. With this, Dainja ranks 11th in the country with a 61.3 field goal percentage this season. In addition, Dainja leads Memphis with six double-doubles and ranks second on the team with 25 blocks. The Brooklyn Park, Minnesota native has notched six 20-point games while scoring in double figures in 22 games.
Closing out the awards for Memphis was senior Tyrese Hunter, who was voted to the All-AAC and All-Newcomer teams. The Racine, Wisconsin native averaged career numbers this season under the tutelage of Hardaway. This season, Hunter averaged 14.1 points per game, along with 3.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.5 steals per game.
On the season, Hunter is one of four players in the American to earn multiple-week honors as he did so twice in three weeks in December. Hunter has been lethal from beyond the arc as he is fifth in the AAC with an average of 2.4 made three-pointers per game, while his 40.6 shooting percentage is sixth best in the league.
What Do The Analyst Think?
With all the above-described success, there are still questions as to where the Tigers will be seeded. We spoke with Fox Sports Bracket Analyst Mike Decourcy on our podcast, The Sports Buffet, and asked about the Tigers. What sets Decourcy apart is that his projection is a 6-seed for the Tigers. In his explanation, Decourcy told us, “I still have Memphis on the six line. The majority of the bracket people have them as a seven. I don’t think that’s a fair evaluation of what they’ve achieved. There is a difference between the seven and the six, and I think the Tigers have earned it. The six is based on the fact that they are 18 and two in their league.”
Going further when speaking on the American, Decourcy told 4 Star Sports, “ Not that league record is important, but the dominance of the league, even with the two disappointing road losses, they’re still, they’re still dominating their league. They won at UAB, which was the biggest road game of the year,” which may dispel many who seem to negate the importance of games played in the American. As the Tigers embark on the AAC Tournament, Decourcy spoke to us about whether the seeding might change.
He told us, “We’ll see whether they hold that.”. In closing on the Tigers, he would go on to say “ I don’t know that a five is available to them, but they will definitely have to win the automatic bid for them to be a six.”.
While many Tigers fans may agree with the analysis of Decourcy there are many who have not agreed with the next bracketologist.
On Wednesday, Wes Pruett represented 4 Star Sports on the ESPN March Madness media call featuring Joe Lunardi. The first question came from Wes, who made note that Memphis had not moved from the 8-seed. Next, he asked Lunardi, “What is it about the Tigers that makes them where you just don’t move them at all?”
In response, we would get more insight into what Lunardi thinks of Memphis. He {Lunardi} started by letting us know that “There’s a lot of teams in that range that aren’t moving at all. The six, seven, and eight for the men this year and are at least numerically, almost indistinguishable.”
Then, Lunardi used the Tigers’ resume with Gonzaga as he told 4 Star Sports, “I would say the two teams in the men’s bracket that are the hardest, at least for me to seed, are Memphis and Gonzaga. They have opposite issues. Gonzaga has great metrics and a so-so resume. Memphis has a great resume and so-so metrics, and in my experience, the committee tends to split the difference in these cases.”
He further explains the challenge of filling out his bracket accurately while discussing other programs across the nation that are similar, in his eyes, to Memphis. Lunardi also brought to light how in his time of analyzing this bracket, the selection committee has looked at “Resume vs Metrics” when determining the final bracket.
Lunardi doubled down by telling us, “I had both the Zags and Memphis on the eight line until Gonzaga was able to knock off St. Mary’s last night. They moved up to a seven. I mean, if you look at the teams just ahead of Memphis, all the sixes and sevens, other than St. Mary’s and Gonzaga, they all have the potential to lose games in the next 24 to 48 hours.” which could be telling as to if Memphis can move in his projections.
When speaking on this possibility, Lunardi informed us, “I don’t wanna say probable, but certainly very possible that the Tigers could move up, provided they get to Sunday, in the American.” before closing by pulling the curtain back again in the committee as the told us “I don’t think the championship game itself will matter very much because we’ve seen pretty much that the committee’s done its work by then.”.
While each analyst had different takes on where the Tigers will land, one thing is undeniable, and that is the this team is a threat to whoever their opponent is.
As we close, we look at what is next for the Memphis Tigers. With the championship title, the Tigers locked in the double-bye in the conference tournament played in Ft. Worth, Texas. As to who Memphis will face, this is yet to be determined as they will play the winner of the Thursday matchup between number 8 Wichita State and number 9 South Florida.
Can Memphis sweep the conference and win a conference championship trophy on Selection Sunday? We will soon find out what happens on the court, but, based on our conversations with some of the nation’s best, this team has got the attention of the nation. More importantly, Penny and Memphis have respect.
